Fraud Exposure Estimator

Select a dealer to estimate annual fraud exposure and quantify NCC prevention savings.

#1 Cochran Automotive

Monroeville, PA · 15 rooftops · 24,000 units/year · 60,000 applications/year

Risk: ELEVATED (59/100)

Calculation InputsDealer-specific factors driving the model

Annual Units Sold

24,000

from Salesforce CRM

Est. Applications

60,000

~2.5x unit volume

Rooftop Count

15

physical locations

Risk Score

58.6/100

composite risk

Regional Fraud Index

80/100

1.6x national avg

Subprime Volume

25%

1x multiplier

30-Day Delinquency

4.2%

regional rate

NCC Products

3 of 10

7 gaps

Est. Annual Exposure

$34.7M

$2,889,062/month

Preventable with NCC

$28.7M

82.7% reduction

Per-Vehicle Cost

$1445

per unit sold

Monthly Savings

$2.4M

$1194/unit

Fraud Exposure by Category

Synthetic Identity Fraud

Fabricated or manipulated identities used to secure auto loans

$2.0M

annual exposure

Calculation inputs:
Incidents/year

796

Avg loss/incident

$24,000

NCC detection rate

85%

NCC savings

$2.0M

Exposure (6% of total)$1,992,000
NCC Prevention (100% recoverable)$1,992,000

1 in 120 auto loan applications involves synthetic fraud (NCC, 2023)

Fraud Prevention (KYC) — Synthetic Fraud Alerts

Income & Employment Misrepresentation

Applicants materially overstating income to qualify for larger loans

$18.1M

annual exposure

Calculation inputs:
Incidents/year

3,600

Avg loss/incident

$12,000

NCC detection rate

78%

NCC savings

$14.1M

Exposure (52% of total)$18,144,000
NCC Prevention (78% recoverable)$14,148,000

~6% of auto loan applications involve material income inflation

Employment & Income Verification (powered by Equifax)

Identity Theft / Third-Party Fraud

Stolen identities used to fraudulently purchase vehicles

$9.2M

annual exposure

Calculation inputs:
Incidents/year

480

Avg loss/incident

$32,000

NCC detection rate

90%

NCC savings

$8.3M

Exposure (27% of total)$9,216,000
NCC Prevention (90% recoverable)$8,288,000

$7.9B total industry fraud exposure in 2023 (NCC)

Identity Verification & Red Flags Compliance

Credit Abuse & Strategic Default

Borrowers with no intention to repay, exploiting good credit scores

$1.6M

annual exposure

Calculation inputs:
Incidents/year

600

Avg loss/incident

$9,500

NCC detection rate

65%

NCC savings

$1.6M

Exposure (5% of total)$1,567,500
NCC Prevention (100% recoverable)$1,567,500

A strong FICO score tells you a buyer qualifies — not whether they plan to pay

Credit Abuse Risk Score (Equifax ML-powered)

Straw Purchases

Third party purchases vehicle on behalf of someone who can't qualify

$3.6M

annual exposure

Calculation inputs:
Incidents/year

288

Avg loss/incident

$18,000

NCC detection rate

70%

NCC savings

$2.5M

Exposure (10% of total)$3,618,000
NCC Prevention (70% recoverable)$2,538,000

Straw purchase investigations up 20-55% in border and metro markets

Combined: ID Verification + Income Verification + Synthetic Alerts

Red Flags Rule Compliance Penalties

FTC penalties for failure to maintain identity theft prevention program

$131K

annual exposure

Calculation inputs:
Incidents/year

0

Avg loss/incident

$3,500

NCC detection rate

100%

NCC savings

$131K

Exposure (0% of total)$131,250
NCC Prevention (100% recoverable)$131,250

$3,500 per citation for Red Flags Rule non-compliance

Compliance Workflow + Identity Verification

Regional Risk Factors

Fraud Index
80/100
Subprime Volume
25%
Delinquency Rate
4.2%
Fraud Multiplier1.6x national average

Current NCC Protection

Synthetic Fraud DetectionActive
Income/Employment VerificationNot Protected
Identity Verification & Red FlagsNot Protected
Credit Abuse Risk ScoringActive

Products: Fraud Prevention (KYC), Credit Abuse Risk, Credit Convert

Protect #1 Cochran Automotive

NCC fraud prevention could save $28.7M/year — $2,388,729/month.

82.7%

fraud reduction

Estimates based on industry data from NCC, Point Predictive, FTC, and Equifax. For informational purposes only.